Loading paths...
Loading constants...
Loading function...
Loading data 'survey-sm.csv'...
       Gender  Sample Size  Freq (Survey)
     <object>      <int64>      <float64>
       Female          931      54.380841
         Male          768      44.859813
Neither/other           13       0.759346
Loading data 'census.xlsx'...
       Age  Sample Size  Freq (Survey)  Freq (Census)
  <object>      <int64>      <float64>      <float64>
  18 to 24          209      12.207944      11.898368
  25 to 29          161       9.404206       9.101399
  30 to 34          173      10.105140       8.753486
  35 to 39          163       9.521028       8.511815
  40 to 44          156       9.112150       7.907881
  45 to 49          151       8.820093       7.990789
  50 to 54          148       8.644860       8.016900
  55 to 59          116       6.775701       8.416153
  60 to 64          111       6.483645       8.220281
  65 to 69          149       8.703271       6.826848
  70 to 74          108       6.308411       5.542544
  75 to 79           48       2.803738       3.823284
  80 to 84           14       0.817757       2.499483
85 or over            5       0.292056       2.490769
Loading data 'census.xlsx'...
                                                                           Education  Sample Size  Freq (Survey)  Freq (Census)
                                                                            <object>      <int64>      <float64>      <float64>
                                                           Associate degree (2-year)          150       8.761682       7.576740
                                                  College/Bachelor’s degree (4-year)          420      24.532710      19.300537
Complete Master, Doctoral, or terminal professional degree (e.g., MA, Ph.D., JD, MD)          260      15.186916      11.277009
                                 Complete high school (or equivalent, including GED)          496      28.971963      27.590105
                                                               Less than high school           39       2.278037      11.483289
                                                    Some college but didn't complete          347      20.268692      22.784218
Loading data 'census.xlsx'...
                               Race  Sample Size  Freq (Survey)  Freq (Census)
                           <object>      <int64>      <float64>      <float64>
   American Indian or Alaska Native           23       1.343458       1.153730
                              Asian           50       2.920561       6.705211
          Black or African-American          222      12.967290      16.000000
Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander            4       0.233645       0.209104
                              Other           88       5.140187       8.695628
                              White         1325      77.394860      67.300000
Loading data 'census.xlsx'...
          Income  Sample Size  Freq (Survey)  Freq (Census)
        <object>      <int64>      <float64>      <float64>
      0 to 10000          103       6.016355            5.8
  10000 to 14999           79       4.614486            4.0
100000 to 149999          164       9.579439           15.7
  15000 to 24999          191      11.156542            8.3
150000 to 199999           81       4.731308            7.2
  200000 or more           62       3.621495            8.5
  25000 to 34999          168       9.813084            8.4
  35000 to 49999          270      15.771028           11.9
  50000 to 74999          382      22.313084           17.4
  75000 to 99999          212      12.383178           12.8
                           variable       N   Missing  Missing (%)          Mean   Std.Dev    Median       Min       Max
                           <object> <int64> <float64>    <float64>     <float64> <float64> <float64> <float64> <float64>
                       Income (std)    1650      62.0     0.037576 -3.132848e-16  1.000000 -0.270138 -1.162495  6.382042
                          Age (std)    1707       5.0     0.002929 -1.665009e-17  1.000000 -0.209394 -1.449875  2.153427
                    Education (std)    1712       0.0     0.000000 -2.075183e-17  1.000000 -0.457676 -1.767944  1.507727
                       Race (white)    1712       0.0     0.000000  7.739486e-01  0.418395  1.000000  0.000000  1.000000
                      Gender (male)    1712       0.0     0.000000  4.485981e-01  0.497496  0.000000  0.000000  1.000000
                     Ideology (std)    1571     141.0     0.089752  4.749013e-17  1.000000 -0.074489 -1.741476  1.592497
Party identification (with leaners)    1712       0.0     0.000000 -3.966121e-01  2.328350 -1.000000 -3.000000  3.000000
Checking balance for Populist Message for Biden...
Checking balance for Populist Message for Trump...
Checking balance for Anti-populist Message for Biden...
Checking balance for Anti-populist Message for Trump...

Dep. var: popadd
Running model Pop-Dem...
Running model Pop-Dem (with controls)...
Running model Pop-Rep...
Running model Pop-Rep (with controls)...
Running model APop-Dem...
Running model APop-Dem (with controls)...
Running model APop-Rep...
Running model APop-Rep (with controls)...
                        Pop-Dem Pop-Dem (with controls)        APop-Dem APop-Dem (with controls)
       <object>        <object>                <object>        <object>                 <object>
     Cue: Biden          -0.228                  -0.135          -0.202                   -0.196
                (-0.816, 0.361)         (-0.759, 0.490) (-0.767, 0.362)          (-0.757, 0.365)
     Cue: Trump          -0.075                   0.040          -0.147                   -0.052
                (-0.614, 0.463)         (-0.525, 0.606) (-0.706, 0.412)          (-0.610, 0.506)
   Income (std)                                  -0.154                                    0.082
                                        (-0.394, 0.086)                          (-0.154, 0.319)
      Age (std)                                -0.411**                                 -0.380**
                                       (-0.684, -0.137)                         (-0.619, -0.140)
Education (std)                                   0.149                                    0.079
                                        (-0.110, 0.409)                          (-0.170, 0.327)
   Race (white)                                  -0.058                                    0.002
                                        (-0.623, 0.507)                          (-0.501, 0.504)
  Gender (male)                                  -0.066                                    0.038
                                        (-0.584, 0.452)                          (-0.440, 0.517)
 Ideology (std)                               -0.727***                                -0.833***
                                       (-0.996, -0.458)                         (-1.090, -0.576)
       Num.Obs.             398                     346             377                      336
             R2           0.001                   0.108           0.001                    0.136
        R2 Adj.          -0.004                   0.087          -0.004                    0.115
            AIC          1816.1                  1567.6          1701.0                   1474.2
            BIC          1832.1                  1606.1          1716.7                   1512.3
       Log.Lik.        -904.069                -773.807        -846.481                 -727.075
              F           0.291                   5.092           0.274                    6.444
           RMSE            2.35                    2.29            2.29                     2.14
     Std.Errors       Classical               Classical       Classical                Classical
                        Pop-Rep Pop-Rep (with controls)        APop-Rep APop-Rep (with controls)
       <object>        <object>                <object>        <object>                 <object>
     Cue: Biden           0.005                   0.058         1.086**                  1.098**
                (-0.701, 0.711)         (-0.632, 0.748)  (0.374, 1.798)           (0.343, 1.852)
     Cue: Trump         -0.714+                 -0.695*          -0.071                   -0.052
                (-1.427, 0.000)        (-1.378, -0.012) (-0.711, 0.570)          (-0.737, 0.633)
   Income (std)                                  -0.153                                   -0.275
                                        (-0.455, 0.148)                          (-0.634, 0.084)
      Age (std)                                   0.066                                    0.074
                                        (-0.238, 0.369)                          (-0.260, 0.408)
Education (std)                                   0.251                                    0.067
                                        (-0.073, 0.576)                          (-0.262, 0.395)
   Race (white)                                   0.173                                    0.464
                                        (-0.792, 1.137)                          (-0.605, 1.534)
  Gender (male)                                  -0.242                                    0.352
                                        (-0.853, 0.369)                          (-0.278, 0.983)
 Ideology (std)                                1.238***                                   0.525*
                                         (0.813, 1.662)                           (0.063, 0.988)
       Num.Obs.             278                     256             265                      237
             R2           0.017                   0.158           0.040                    0.083
        R2 Adj.           0.010                   0.131           0.033                    0.051
            AIC          1301.3                  1161.7          1196.4                   1069.9
            BIC          1315.8                  1197.1          1210.7                   1104.6
       Log.Lik.        -646.659                -570.829        -594.181                 -524.960
              F           2.370                   5.788           5.519                    2.592
           RMSE            2.49                    2.29            2.29                     2.26
     Std.Errors       Classical               Classical       Classical                Classical
Dep. var: popmul
Running model Pop-Dem...
Running model Pop-Dem (with controls)...
Running model Pop-Rep...
Running model Pop-Rep (with controls)...
Running model APop-Dem...
Running model APop-Dem (with controls)...
Running model APop-Rep...
Running model APop-Rep (with controls)...
                        Pop-Dem Pop-Dem (with controls)        APop-Dem APop-Dem (with controls)
       <object>        <object>                <object>        <object>                 <object>
     Cue: Biden          -0.007                  -0.004          -0.005                   -0.005
                (-0.048, 0.034)         (-0.047, 0.039) (-0.044, 0.035)          (-0.044, 0.035)
     Cue: Trump           0.000                   0.010          -0.012                   -0.002
                (-0.038, 0.037)         (-0.030, 0.049) (-0.051, 0.027)          (-0.041, 0.037)
   Income (std)                                  -0.011                                    0.008
                                        (-0.028, 0.006)                          (-0.009, 0.024)
      Age (std)                               -0.036***                                -0.030***
                                       (-0.055, -0.017)                         (-0.047, -0.014)
Education (std)                                   0.008                                    0.004
                                        (-0.010, 0.026)                          (-0.014, 0.021)
   Race (white)                                  -0.004                                    0.012
                                        (-0.043, 0.035)                          (-0.023, 0.048)
  Gender (male)                                  -0.010                                    0.004
                                        (-0.046, 0.026)                          (-0.030, 0.038)
 Ideology (std)                               -0.053***                                -0.059***
                                       (-0.072, -0.035)                         (-0.077, -0.041)
       Num.Obs.             398                     346             377                      336
             R2           0.000                   0.131           0.001                    0.144
        R2 Adj.          -0.005                   0.110          -0.004                    0.123
            AIC          -304.4                  -280.9          -310.0                   -307.2
            BIC          -288.5                  -242.4          -294.2                   -269.0
       Log.Lik.         156.216                 150.442         158.980                  163.610
              F           0.060                   6.326           0.184                    6.863
           RMSE            0.16                    0.16            0.16                     0.15
     Std.Errors       Classical               Classical       Classical                Classical
                        Pop-Rep Pop-Rep (with controls)        APop-Rep APop-Rep (with controls)
       <object>        <object>                <object>        <object>                 <object>
     Cue: Biden          -0.004                  -0.002        0.086***                 0.087***
                (-0.054, 0.046)         (-0.051, 0.047)  (0.038, 0.133)           (0.037, 0.137)
     Cue: Trump         -0.045+                 -0.040+          -0.003                    0.006
                (-0.096, 0.005)         (-0.089, 0.008) (-0.046, 0.039)          (-0.040, 0.052)
   Income (std)                                  -0.017                                  -0.021+
                                        (-0.038, 0.004)                          (-0.045, 0.003)
      Age (std)                                  -0.002                                   -0.008
                                        (-0.023, 0.020)                          (-0.030, 0.014)
Education (std)                                  0.021+                                    0.008
                                        (-0.002, 0.044)                          (-0.014, 0.030)
   Race (white)                                  -0.003                                    0.009
                                        (-0.070, 0.065)                          (-0.062, 0.080)
  Gender (male)                                  -0.017                                   0.036+
                                        (-0.061, 0.026)                          (-0.006, 0.078)
 Ideology (std)                                0.092***                                 0.053***
                                         (0.062, 0.121)                           (0.023, 0.084)
       Num.Obs.             278                     256             265                      237
             R2           0.013                   0.159           0.055                    0.127
        R2 Adj.           0.005                   0.132           0.047                    0.096
            AIC          -171.5                  -196.0          -239.3                   -214.3
            BIC          -157.0                  -160.6          -225.0                   -179.6
       Log.Lik.          89.764                 108.020         123.654                  117.156
              F           1.755                   5.826           7.580                    4.129
           RMSE            0.18                    0.16            0.15                     0.15
     Std.Errors       Classical               Classical       Classical                Classical
Done!
